Tag: Wool

Steady as she goes for wool

AWEX report a “good solid market over three selling days”; again it was the fine wool leading higher while the rest of the market held firm. Crossbreds also finally found some support and reversed their long downward spiral to see the 28 MPG improve by 19 cents.

The EMI was up A$0.03, while in US$ terms it improved 16 cents on the back of the Au$ increasing by almost US$0.01 over the week.

While 47,000 bales were originally listed, only 45,400 bales were eventually offered with 41,500 sold into a market resulting in a 7.6% Passed In rate. The PI rate was skewed somewhat with growers in Fremantle passing 13.5%.
The question around at the moment is can fine wool continue to rally; will we see an increase in the premium (Basis) for fine wool over medium wool as the clip shifts broader as a result of the improved seasonal conditions? What is the nett effect of recent decisions by Merino sheep producers to re-focus on meat production alongside their traditional wool focus? Historically a push to bigger sheep and more lambs meant a broader micron from these sheep; but has the advances in breeding for wool quality evident over the past 20 years negated this usual outcome?

As Mecardo reported, 21 MPG types were up 34% in volume for the 3 month period, continuing the trend of moving wool across the micron spectrum. The bottom line is that increases in the 20 – 22 micron types are at the direct expense of volume in the 17 – 19 micron categories. Even if the Autumn break is poor, cheap grain prices should mean that sheep are maintained in peak condition again maximising performance but also continuing the pressure on the clip to move broader.
While we can speculate that the long-awaited rally for fine wool will be the saviour of the industry and reverse the trend away from Merino sheep, the reality is that the market will need some time to adjust after a long period of relatively cheap fine wool. Countering this though is the fact that the world wool processing industry has as a result of cheaper fine wool prices become accustomed to using the finer types; cheap basis and plenty of volume over the past 4-5 years has encouraged greater demand.
We also know that fine wool rallies can become price spikes; the problem is that price spikes in the past have been short-lived. Figure 2 shows that the spikes in September 1994, June 2001 and March 2011 were followed by severe corrections. Could this time be different?

This week Riemann traded solid volumes, however most of the action was in the 19 MPG tenor, a big change from volume traded over the past 4 – 5 years which has been 21 MPG focused. This is reflecting where buyers now have their concern; so perhaps it would be prudent for wool growers to take a contrarian approach and focus on 21 MPG contracts to protect future production. This is a good time to discuss with either your broker or Mecardo the type and tenor of forward contracts; high prices and potential further upside for fine wool making an interesting case for trading Basis, something the good grain traders regularly exploit to advantage and worth considering for the next wool clip.

The week ahead
Next week Melbourne is selling over three days with Fremantle and Sydney on Wednesday & Thursday. The strong market has again enticed 47,500 bales to be listed for next week, however forward projections for the following weeks trail off to 40,000 and 43,000.

Fine microns lead the way

Picture1The good news for the wool market continued; again, it was the fine wool that was the stand-out and led the market. Sydney had a designated fine wool sale; this came at the perfect time for NSW fine wool growers resulting in the Merino fleece and skirtings component having an almost total clearance with only 1.6% Passed In, compared to the national PI rate of 6.7%. The EMI was up A$0.15, while in US$ terms it was 9 cents better.
The premium for fine wool continues to grow, in Melbourne 18 MPG is 500 cents over the 21 MPG, while the Sydney catalogue reported a 550-cent premium due to a generally sounder offering.

Picture2The last time 18MPG basis was at this level was July 2011 (Fig 2). Of further note is that in July 2016 (last year) it was quoted in Melbourne at 52 cents. Is that a 900% increase in less than 12 months?
Of the 44,400 bales offered, 41,500 were sold into a market where all but the coarse X Bred types improved on last week’s price levels.
were also good traded levels on Riemann concentrating on the 19 MPG contract with 1700 cents for the winter maturity and 1640 out to September. As one grower noted, “Sales above $2,000 per bale are now available out to December and we have sold plenty below this level in the past 5 years, so hedging a percentage of the next clip makes sense even if we think the market outlook is bullish!”.
This week Mecardo had a look at wool volumes, with the “Some up, some down” article reporting Auction data for merino combing wool showing a continued swing to the broader half of the merino distribution with 21 micron auction volumes up by 34% for the past three months.
Understanding what this observation means to the future for wool was helped when the subsequent article was published looking at how the main competitors to wool were placed regarding price.
The average merino micron price in US dollar terms continues to outperform the major apparel fibres. However, price forecasts for cotton and manmade fibres in 2017 point to their rolling five year ranks easing. It is easy enough to envisage finer micron merino prices continuing to outperform due to lower supply but broader merino categories will have increased supplies coming onto the market which will make continued outperformance difficult.

The week ahead
The combination of a stronger market both in US$ and A$ terms alongside lower Pass-In rates points to a growing demand from processors. This is also fuelled by the expectation of tighter supply for fine wool going forward; all this leads to a strong level of confidence for the near term.
Next week Melbourne is selling over three days with Fremantle and Sydney on Wednesday & Thursday. The strong market has enticed some additional volume to the market with 47,500 bales listed for next week, however forward projections for the following weeks trail off to 43,000 and 40,000.

A market within the market

Picture1The response from three wool brokers this week when asked about the wool market was unanimous – it’s extremely good if you have wool 19 micron and finer, its good if you are in the “bread and butter” 20 to 22 micron range, and it’s terrible if you have crossbred types. This reinforces the concept that the wool market is not homogenous, it’s made up of a variety different markets.

There were some proviso’s on the above comment; the increasing number of lots containing higher levels of vegetable matter and burr are starting to be left behind, with buyers preferencing the good “FNF” (free or nearly free) types. This is a normal response as more wool with fault comes forward at this time of the year. The good season with excess growth of grass and burr’s is a factor; we note that it is usually more extreme when wool prices are high.

The general market showed a lift of 10 cents in A$, and with a weaker US$ the EMI lifted 22 cents in US$ terms.

Picture2Fine wool has finally come out of the shadows and remerged to show good premiums over the mainstream types, the concern with the trade now is that this incentive for fine wool producers to continue with this specialty product has come too late for some. The fine wool premium as shown in Fig 2, identifies that the 18 premium over 21 MPG is now at a record not seen since September 2011

This should see the fine wool prices continue to lead the market, supporting the other merino microns (a repayment of recent times when the medium wool supported fine wool prices). The concern about supply of fine and superfine wool is not simply about wool producers having taken breeding decisions based on the disappointing prices of recent times; the terrific season across most wool growing areas means that each flock will test broader this season.

The week ahead

Next week an offering of 45,861 bales at all centres is rostered, its hard to see that there is not more of the same coming with wool producers (except for cross-bred types) happy to take full advantage of a buoyant market.

Reality check has timely lessons

Last week we had wool at all-time highs, and the
usual response is to look forward to see how much
higher it could go. This week the wool market provided
a reality check, prices on the opening day (Tuesday)
were down 20 to 40 cents compared to the close of last week.
It was the mid-point of Merino microns that suffered,
with 19 to 21 MPG feeling the brunt of the retracement
while fine wool was least effected.
The good news was that after the “correction” on
Tuesday, the market was remarkably resilient on
Wednesday; in fact, by the end of the week the 17 & 18
MPG’S had closed above last week’s level in Melbourne.

To retain some perspective; the EMI is still well above
the closing December markets, whether measured in A$
or US$ terms – figure 1.

The trend of improving fine wool premiums continued
this week; the 18 Basis premium over 21 MPG has
doubled since October last year. Fine wool producers
have seen this premium rally from 123 cents this time
last year to now sit at 443. This will provide an incentive
to hold the line with fine wool sheep, although it is
concerning processors how far the micron will broaden
this year given the excellent seasonal conditions currently in play.

Growers response to the easing wool market was to pass-in 13.3% of the offering, or almost 6,000 bales. To break this down a bit more, of the 30,657 bales of Merino fleece and skirtings offered, 3,500 bales or 11.4% were passed-in by brokers. Normally this would be seen
as a “brave” decision when the market is at record levels; the change in supply as well as the very limited wool either in the pipeline or in brokers stores makes this decision a little more understandable.

As we said last week, high prices provide an opportunity in
the wool market to forward sell, this week’s retracement
is a timely reminder that often high prices are the
antidote for high prices.Table 1

This week we have had a lot of feedback about our blog
article, “Let’s make merino great again!”. We are looking
for innovations and ideas we can publicise to showcase the
great things that are happening in the merino/wool industry.

The Week Ahead

The offering of next week is 42,584 bales in all three centres
over two days. Based on the recovery to the Tuesday correction
and the reduced offering we should see the market at least hold.
The test will be if the processors remain buoyant about the
market outlook or were they “spooked” by this week’s roller
coaster and decide to sit back and see how this plays out.
As usual, interesting times for wool.

 

Is it a record? Maybe yes, maybe no.

The first week of sales for the new year last week
opened with a bang, the EMI smashed through
1400 cents, while the WMI reached almost 1500
cents. (WMI has little influence from X Bred prices).
This week the good times continued, prompting
AWI to announce the wool market was at an
all-time record. This statement needs a little more
detail to confirm; the wool market across the board
is not all at record levels.

While not wanting to dampen down the enthusiasm,
the wool market covers a wide range of types, not all
are trading at highs. It also needs to consider the
timeframe; the high this week of the EMI still hasn’t
overtaken the April 1988 high of 1523. As Mecardo
followers will know, we also look at the price the
processors are paying to determine how strong is
demand; so, when looking at prices do you consider
the price from the buyer’s perspective or the seller’s
perspective? We think that while the price the grower
receives is important from an Australian viewpoint,
the cost to the buyers is a truer reflection of demand.

In Au$ terms the June/July period of 2011 was the
previous recent high for the EMI – 1426 cents.
At this time the A$ was trading at US$1.07, causing
the processors to shell out US$ 1500 cents. Note
that this week the EMI in US$ terms is still below
1100 cents. (Fig 1.)

The positives to the above analysis is that in this
scenario everyone is happy. Buyers receive regular
orders when the market is rising; processors don’t
want to miss out and a strong market resonates
confidence all the way up the wool pipeline. The
lower A$ (compared to peak levels when it traded
around parity) is keeping prices for the ultimate
end customers below previous peaks. Happy sellers,
happy buyers – the true definition of a “win-win!”.

On a cautionary note, the EMI high reached in the
winter of 2011 was then followed by the recent history
low point of 946 in September 2012. The market then
wobbled along with the EMI oscillating between
1000 + 1140 until early 2015 before the beginning of
this current positive run. Out take on this rear view is
that markets are continuously moving; so at “record”
levels locking in some of the future clip needs to be
considered. As one grower said, this is the time to
“kick the can as far down the road as we can!”

The trend of improving fine wool premiums continued
this week, we are now seeing the highest “basis” levels
since January 2012, however as Fig 2 shows, we have a
long way to run to get back to the heady days of 2011.
It is great to see that the 18 – 21 MPG basis has doubled
to 400 cents since October last year, fine wool producers
should begin to feel that their product is again on the up.

A challenge for the industry if, as is expected, the market
remains strong but supply stays static, is that the wool
trade may become frustrated that higher prices are not
encouraging increased production. As Andrew Woods
reported, sheep numbers in these bumper times are
only forecast to rise by 1.4% next year.

The Week Ahead

The offering of next week is below 50,000 bales so after a
couple of big offerings supply is easing, and based on reports
from traders the market is going to continue to remain active.
It would be unusual to see the market continue to rise at the
same rate as the last 2 week’s (not unprecedented though!),
so on balance a steady week ahead with a continuance of
strong demand for selected lots of the better-quality fine types.

 

China wades back in despite higher A$

Increased demand this week from exporters noted as Chinese buyers resume their activity, undeterred in the face of a higher A$. The EMI creeping back above 1500¢, up 28¢ to 1506¢ and gaining 31US¢ to 1146US¢. The Western markets resumed auctions this week and activity participated in the rally, making up for lost time with a 63¢ rise to see the WMI at 1567¢, up 58¢ in US terms to 1192US¢.

Price gains for most categories of wool noted, although the medium fibres leading the charge higher with gains of 50-65¢ noted for microns between 20 to 23 mpg in the East and 90-110¢ gains for similar wool in the West. The rally in finer wool limited to a 15-50¢ range in all three centres.

Interestingly, the medium fibres displaying a more robust price movement this time around with the 21 micron reaching levels in AUD terms not seen since the middle 1988. Indeed, in May 2016 when the 21-micron hit 1535¢ in the South the 17 mpg was trading above $23 and the 19 mpg was above $19.5. This week with 21 mpg at 1549¢ the 17-micron unable to climb above $22 and 19-micron can’t crack the $19 level.

Some whispers around the traps that if the Chinese step away again the fine end could be in for a quick correction. Although, the prospect of higher US interest rates later this year could continue to play into wool grower’s favour. This week the US Federal Reserve lifted rates and because this was highly anticipated it had limited impact on the A$. However, any sign that the US will move to a more tightening bias or indications of more frequent potential future rate rises in the US could see the A$ come under reasonable pressure again, pushing it back toward the 70US¢ level. A relatively softer A$ now compared to back in 2011/12 helping to keep wool prices competitive overseas, despite the high local prices – figure 3.

Conflict Grains

The last week has been quite quiet in the grain markets, with little in the way of new information. The lack of fresh data has had traders clutching at straws. In this week’s comment, we will take a general look at a potential source of volatility.
Figure 1
One of the pieces of information which traders have been keeping a close eye on is the situation in Ukraine. The eastern districts of Ukraine have been a flashpoint over the last couple of years with continuing violence between Russian backed rebels and the Ukrainian government. In recent weeks fighting, has escalated.

In recent years this violence has produced a number of black swan event which have driven prices, however the markets soon corrected as the flow of grain was largely unaffected. In figure 1, we can see that although violence has erupted, the Russian grain market has largely been unaffected.

Although it is always important to keep an open mind to these type of events, I am confident that unless wide scale warfare breaks out that the Russian/Ukrainian situation will have a minimal impact on pricing.

Figure2At a local level, we continue to see basis come under pressure. In figure 2, we can see that Geelong has now joined Port Lincoln in the negative basis club, with likely Adelaide to follow soon. The weight of harvest could likely keep basis levels depressed for sometime.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Next week

All eyes continue to be on the northern hemisphere weather, and the condition of the crop. At the moment there are no real major emergencies, and the market is quietly confident about the condition for 17/18.

The USDA world agricultural supply and demand estimates are released on Thursday, and we will update on them in next Fridays update.

 

Wool’s market of to a flyer!

At the end of sales for 2016, we noted that the wool market had
finished in line with its performance over the year, solid, firm and
resilient. There was generally a feeling of confidence, but the open
to 2017 was well above expectation. The market this week opened
strongly and then just got better.

The week started in Melbourne on Tuesday where the initial price
rises were led by the fine wool, and when Sydney joined in it had to
catch up with the early market quote reporting 18 MPG up 100 cents
compared to the last sale in Sydney of 2016.

This was a large offering, the 48,808 bales sold was 10,000 above
the average weekly clearance for 2016.

By the end of the week, the EMI had jumped 67 cents to be at its
highest level for 5 years and within 3 cents of its all-time high in
2011 (Fig 1). In A$ terms it sat at 1422, exactly 140 cents above the
level for the first sale in 2016. In US$ terms it’s at 1061, well above
the comparative year ago, level of 890. These are strong signals that
demand is improving. Percentiles are telling the story, with all types
except Crossbreds at the 95% level or better. (Table 1)

In the Mecardo report this week by Andrew Woods, Wool supply
update, the seasonal effect is starting to become obvious with the
good general spring conditions translating into the clip moving
broader. This is taking pressure off fine wool prices, in fact there
is now evidence of buyers
concern with this end of the market keenly sought out this week.

The micron movement of the clip will be most keenly felt in the sub 19
MPG which is reducing in volume, and the 20 microns and broader
which is increasing. This trend has further to run, even without further
rain for the next couple of months the path is set; the clip will continue
to move broader. As a result, the fine wool premium is likely to continue
to improve, resulting in higher fine wool prices providing that medium
wool categories can at least hold at these levels (Fig 2).

Crossbred types missed out on the general price rally and continued to
struggle, on the other hand the 30 – 40 cent lift in the Cardings indicator
pushed all 3 centres indicators to record levels.

The Week Ahead

Another big offering of 55,000 bales listed for next week, and based
on this week’s sales we expect that only crossbred producers will be
doubtful of turning up to sale. So, a big offering, however those we
have spoken to in the trade are not seeing this as a temporary spike,
and while not expecting to see the gains of this week repeated note
that the tight pipeline supply is keeping orders flowing at these levels.

The wool trade is also aware that listed bales for sale quickly drop
back to 40,000 per week.