Month: June 2020

With not all processors operating fully and sheep supply tight, sheep slaughter dropped to the lowest level of the season last week. It’s been a while since we last had sheep slaughter this low, In fact, the last time was back in 2011. Luckily prices are more robust now, but the reduced buying interest saw modest falls for mutton.

Just 37,998 sheep were processed in the week ending the 19^th of June (Figure 1). While it was 53% under the five year average for this time of year, we know it’s far from an average season.  What does make the better comparison is the 2011 season, where the same week saw just a 3% difference in sheep slaughter levels.

There was enough room for lambs to be processed though. Lamb slaughter held steady at recent levels with most yards reporting a slight lift in lamb supply, particularly heavier lambs.

Victoria, Tasmania and parts of Western Australia all received a good drenching in the week passed, and all saw mutton values dive. The result was a fall of nearly 50¢ for the National Mutton Indicator to 626¢/kg cwt (Figure 2).

There were mixed reports for lamb categories between yards this week, but most moved slightly lower. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESLTI) lost 7¢ on the last week of the 2019/20 sale season to finish at 870¢/kg cwt, just 3% below last years level.

Heavy lambs had a noteable fall of 12¢ to 827¢/kg cwt on the east coast, tested by another week of uncertainty around retail and export demand. A 31¢ decline was recorded for Restocker lambs. Merino lambs were the only category to see a gain on the week, up 14 cents to 804¢/kg cwt.

Next week:

Earlier in the week we looked at how lamb and sheep supply is likely to play as we move closer to spring, and how prices might react (view here). Lamb supplies tend to stay relatively steady at this time of year but rebuilding efforts will keep sheep in paddocks and provide some support to both mutton and lamb prices.

• The latest sheep and lamb industry projections show a slight tightening in annual sheep and lamb supplies.
• Second half lamb slaughter could be marginally higher than 2019.
• Forecasts suggest we are in for two years of tight sheep supplies.

As we move through the depths of winter and tight ovine supply, attention is turning to the spring and summer. With winter lambs hitting the ground now, and many of the new season supply coming in the next two months, we take a look at what we might see in terms of lamb and sheep supply for the rest of the year.

Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) industry projections put some figures around total sheep and lamb supply for 2020, and it obviously takes into account what has been slaughtered already.  As such we deduct slaughter to date to give us a rough idea of what MLA think is to come for the rest of the year.

April lamb slaughter came in well below last year’s levels. Coming in at 1.58 million head, April lamb slaughter was 16% below last year, but it has been lower recently, in 2017.

Based on MLA’s weekly slaughter statistics, it looks like May lamb slaughter will be higher than April, but much lower than last year. Lamb slaughter in the first 2 weeks of June has also been lower, and it looks like we might be headed for the tightest slaughter month since at least 2005.

If we take what has been processed to date, and deduct from the latest forecast of 20.6 million head, the supply in the second half of the year looks like figure 1.  If it comes to fruition, lamb supply from July to December will actually be 3% stronger than in 2019.

Figure 1 also shows how the 2021 forecast will pan out with average seasonality.  With a return to more normal seasons, we should see similar slaughter to this year in the first quarter, and stronger levels for the remainder of the year.

There is no such increase on the horizon for sheep supplies.  The second half of 2020 is expected to see slaughter rates 35% lower than in 2019.  Sheep supply is expected to increase in the spring, but it will still be well off the strong levels seen last year.

The forecast for 2021 sheep slaughter is the same as in 2020, at 6.5 million head. Figure 2 shows that normal seasonality will see 2021 slaughter track at similar levels to this year.

What does this mean?

We have noted before that we are currently seeing the low for lamb supply, with year on year increases expected from here. It will be up to demand to drive lamb prices in the spring. Supply will be historically low, but it is hard to see demand matching the levels of last year, and therefore it’s hard to see prices matching either.

Tight sheep supply might save lamb prices. The sheep supply dearth will leave some more space for lamb, if export demand is there to soak them up.

Lower supply wasn’t enough to put a halt to the softening lamb prices this week, with what appears to be wavering demand. Small sheep numbers on the east coast however, did help to lift mutton prices.

So far in June, east coast lamb slaughter has trended 12% below the five year average, and 4% below the tight supply year of 2011. The “tight supply getting tighter” situation continued last week with lamb slaughter down 6% on the week prior (Figure 1).

East coast sheep slaughter was steady for the week ending the 12^th of June.  59,902 head were processed which was within the lower end of the 70% range for this time of the season.

Both lamb and sheep yardings were lower again, for a combined throughput of 161,175 head at east coast saleyards (Figure 2). This was 17% below the five year average level for this time in the season. The big drop came from NSW which saw 30% fewer lamb yardings last week compared to week earlier numbers.

Weaker lamb yardings was met with weaker prices. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator lost 24¢ to come back under the magic 900¢ threshold, ending at 882¢/kg cwt. Trade lambs fared better in Western Australia, up 13 cents to 817¢/kg cwt.

Sheep continued to receive support, resulting in a 2% rise in the National Mutton Indicator on the week to close at 672¢/kg cwt.

Next week:

Declining supplies and softening prices is not a good sign for demand. We won’t sound the alarm yet, but the test will come in July when lamb supply starts to ramp up.

Key Points

• The ABS Commodities survey data for 2018-19 was released late in May, confirming a new low for the flock.
• NSW had the biggest decline in sheep numbers, while on a National scale it was lambs on hand which were down the most.
• Breeding ewe numbers did not hit a new low, meaning the lamb crop could recover quickly.

Many readers will remember filling out the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Agricultural Commodities survey last July and might be wondering what happened to the data. Well, it was released at the end of May, and we’ve seen the headline flock number, but breaking it down makes for some interesting reading.

There is more data revealed in the ABS Agricultural Commodities Report than we can discuss in one article, so we’ll start with the big numbers.

We know the Australian sheep flock is at an over 100 year low, but in NSW June 2019 marked the lowest sheep flock for the state on record. Figure 1 shows the NSW flock fell 11% from June 2018, but it remains the biggest sheep state, accounting for 34% of the National flock. In 20 years the NSW flock has almost halved.

South Australia also had a heavy fall, losing 10% of their flock, with Victoria down 5%. WA managed to largely maintain their flock, down just 1%, but it has still halved since 1995.

With NSW bearing the brunt of the drought and SA also being heavily impacted, it should be no surprise that those two states saw the biggest downturn.

Despite the total flock being at its lowest level since 1905, the breeding ewe flock at the 30 June 19 was still marginally above 2016 (Figure 2). The flock fell 7%, breeding ewes were down 4.7%, and lambs under 1 year were down 11.6%. Strong wool prices helped save some wethers, with the rams and wether portion of the flock down just 2%.

The lamb portion of the flock was down due to a smaller lamb crop in 2018-19.  In fact, the lamb crop was at its lowest level since our records start in 2009 (Figure 3). The green line shows lambs marked as a proportion of breeding ewes on hand as at June 30 the previous year. Low lamb marking in 2018-19 shows the worst reproductive performance in six years.

We can see that from 2016 the flock bounced back, with the lamb crop coming in at 88% of the ewe flock. While the ewe flock is likely to be lower this year, the lamb crop and flock numbers can recover from lows with a good season.

What does this mean?

The ABS data clearly shows how the season can impact lamb supply and flock change. From this, we can extrapolate that 2019-20 likely had a small lamb crop and that the ewe flock will have eased further. We also know that with the better season currently being experienced, we could see the lamb crop bounce back to 30 million head in 2020-21 or possibly even higher.

Prices for most sheep and lamb categories took a turn south this week as resistance was found at recent levels. That was despite lower yardings; marking the entry into the tight winter for sheep and lamb supply. 

Saleyard prices for most categories declined week on week. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) fell 2.4% to 914¢/kg cwt (Figure 1), but what was lost in the East was made up in the West. Trade lambs in Western Australia gained 2.3% to 804¢/kg cwt.

East coast restocker lambs didn’t get the support they’ve enjoyed of late, falling slightly to 961¢/kg cwt. It was light lambs that took the hardest hit though, losing 32 cents or 3.5%.

Mutton prices lost ground as well. The National Mutton indicator shed 2.7% or 18 cents to 659¢/kg cwt.

Last week saw fewer lambs and sheep running through eastern saleyards again. Lamb yardings were down 4%, and sheep yardings down 2% to see a combined 177,365 head yarded (Figure 2). Victoria drove much of the decline in lamb throughput, with nearly 10,000 fewer head yarded.

East coast lamb slaughter has been tracking well below the five year average since February. However, an 8% lift last week saw lamb slaughter was just shy of the five year average seasonal low (Figure 3). On the other hand, sheep slaughter is currently tracking 31% under the five year average.

Next week:

We’ve entered the official winter lull period for lamb and sheep supply and while there have already been weeks of very low slaughter, tight can get tighter. The Winter rainfall forecast has been changeable to say the least, switching again from average to above-average rainfall for most sheep regions. Let’s hope the current forecast sticks.