Tag: Grain

A great start to your 2020 grain marketing

The price received in Australia is composed of futures & basis*. It is possible to lock in the futures component through using derivatives (swap/futures etc).

In figure 1 the forward curve is displayed in A$/mt. The forward curve shows the futures price for forward contract months.

The December 2020 contract which aligns with the Australian harvest is currently trading at A$316/mt. This is the highest level in five years, and provides a strong starting point for marketing grain.

As mentioned before the futures price is one component albeit one which makes up the majority of price (even in drought years – see here).

If using swaps/futures, the final price you receive will effectively be your futures price (A$316) plus basis at the point of physical sale.

In figure 2 the weekly average basis is displayed since 2010. As we can see the past year and a half is probably not a reliable indicator due to the drought led basis. However, the average across the country is:

  • Adelaide A$28
  • Geelong A$37
  • Kwinana A$49
  • Port Kembla A$51
  • Port Lincoln A$24

On the law of averages locking in futures and selling on average basis would return between A$340 & A$366. A price that is historically attractive.

*For the purpose of this analysis we are not including FX, and basing on a converted futures price.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean/next week?:

The futures market is currently offering strong levels for December 2020. A large proportion of the rise in recent weeks has been due to geopolitical factors – which could lead to volatility.

At present these are high levels compared to the last five years. If you lock in a little at these levels, and it turns out to be the worst trade you do – it is still likely to be profitable.

Little and often wins the day.

We are removed from the rest of the world. Or are we?

In our analysis last Thursday, the three main components of pricing were briefly discussed. One of the important factors is the basis. In this analysis, I look at whether basis is the most important factor and whether we are disconnected from overseas markets.

The basis level is largely driven by domestic factors. When we have a large crop the basis level drops, conversely a small crop leads to higher basis levels. It is important to be monitoring basis levels as they provide an indicator of when it is best to sell.

During this drought, we have seen basis level rise to extraordinary levels, with the highest levels clearly being in the areas where the supply was diminished, and demand remained strong (figure 1). At points during the drought basis levels in Port Kembla achieved +A$215 over spot futures.

This has made many believe both producers and consumers that there is no need to consider the overseas price. This is not the case, in order to protect from adverse price risk, the futures market needs to continue to be considered.

In figure 2 basis is displayed as a percentage of the overall price. At the height of the drought pricing basis levels approached on average 40% on the east coast, however, they have since declined. In recent times, for instance, Geelong, Adelaide, and Kwinana have reverted close to their long term averages.

At present, the overwhelming majority of the price is comprised of the futures pricing component, which can be easily hedged on long horizons.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean/next week?:

Basis is an important factor when pricing grain. As a producer, when the basis is high it is better to sell basis and maintain exposure to futures.

As a country that typically exports wheat, overseas futures are the biggest driver of prices in Australia. Although drought can cause large swings in pricing at a local level, it is important to still consider overseas futures in your marketing strategy.

It’s a deal, it’s a steal, it’s the sale of the century

A welcome sound not heard for a long time is being heard throughout large parts of NSW & QLD. The noise of raindrops hitting roofs. This week we cover a few factors from overseas impacting on markets including Egyptian purchases, Russian intervention, and the phase 1 deal.

In recent months weather forecasts have consistently tantalized without providing much (see map). Last week strong rainfall was forecast for large parts of the country, and like the boy who cried wolf – I didn’t believe the forecasts. As time flowed this one seemed to be coming to fruition, but I had been tricked into a false sense of security before.

To my delight, this one has delivered for many. Although this rainfall event would have been more welcome four weeks ago for the summer crop, it has provided a good dump of rain throughout the drought-ridden east coast. Let’s not get too cocky though, we’ll need a little more rain to guarantee a good 2020 crop.

Let’s start with the global market. At the end of last week, the Chicago futures market rallied as Egypt bought 300kmt of wheat, at the highest price since February. This volume was unsurprisingly black sea origin however provided a bullish sentiment for overall pricing.

Russia also assisted with the price rise by intervening in their markets. A new export quota limiting grain exports to 20mmt for the first half of the year was enacted. This caused some concern as interventions by what is now the world’s most important grain exporter could have ramifications for trade flows.

Relations between China and the US seemed to be thawing this week, as both countries agreed to a phase 1 trade deal. This deal is a starting point in improving trade between the two super powers, including the agreement to purchase an increased value in agricultural produce over the next two years.

In the agreement China are set to purchase $36.5bn (A$52bn) in 2020, and $43.5bn(A$63bn) in 2021. To put the scale of the increase in perspective during 2017 China purchased $24bn (A$35bn) in agricultural produce from the US (figure 2).

There is a lot of conjecture at present related to which commodities China will purchase in order to increase their value purchased.

The trade wasn’t overly impressed by the deal as it didn’t contain much detail in regards to products purchased, and included a market value clause:

‘The Parties acknowledge that purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations and that market conditions, particularly in the case of agricultural goods, may dictate the timing of purchases within any given year.’

The big concern for me is that in order to meet these purchase requirements is that the trade flows may prioritise US as an origin for many agricultural commodities.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean/next week?:

The rain is set to continue through many parts which will provide some confidence for the coming crop. This must be tempered by the reality of it being four months until seeding and nine months from harvest.

The price of GM crops

The South Australian government is debating a bill to end the moratorium on GM crop cultivation. I received information from a contact related to claims from anti-gm activists. I thought it was time to dispel some of the activist’s misunderstandings.

The Mecardo team produced a report on behalf of Grain Producers South Australia (GPSA) and the Agricultural Biotechnology Council of Australia (ABCA). This report was instrumental in removing some of the inaccuracies present in the debate when it comes to pricing.

The information we received was that farmers were avoiding GM crops in Western Australia due to the high premium (up to $100/mt). The reality is that in Western Australia >28% of the Canola crop has been GM in recent years, a considerable volume when you consider that GM is generally used as an agronomic tool for cleaning up paddocks.

In figure 1, the weekly average spread for GM to Non-GM in Kwinana is displayed. As we can see the claim of A$100 discount for GM is a bit of a reach. It has averaged close to A$100 at points during this year. However, it hasn’t stayed there for a particularly wrong period. The average discount for GM canola is A$31.

Co-existence is possible between GM and Non-GM. If it were not, we would be seeing very strong premiums in South Australia against Kwinana due to its GM-free status. However, we do not see this happening (figure 2).

The market never lies. If there was a substantive premium for canola produced in South Australia due to its GM-free status we would see it in the price.

What does it mean for next week?

It is important to understand that GM crops are part of a toolkit for farmers. The discount for GM canola is variable and market-driven.

It is true that there have been large discounts at times, however, it has been close to parity with Non-GM at numerous points over recent years. It is up to farmers to decide whether the agronomic benefits outweigh the discount.

It is important to note that many activists use the GM spread erroneously, depicting that introducing GM canola would result in all canola dropping in price. This is incorrect, it is important to compare apples for apples with Non-GM canola in states to determine if the GM-free status provides a premium for producers. It clearly doesn’t provide a premium.

Roll up, roll up for the wheat rollercoaster

Up, down, side to side. The rollercoaster of the grain market continues to provide excitement. As harvest advances pricing levels have risen. In this week’s update we take a look at ASX pricing, WA forecasts, Trump deals, and UK elections.


The ASX contract has risen dramatically during the past week, at the end of last week the December 2020 was trading at a weekly average of A$344 and has now moved up to A$349 (figure 1). There are concerns from feed consumers related to the slow pace of harvest in Victoria, which is driven both physical and futures levels higher.

The ASX swaps offered by banks are expiring during the next week, and we can clearly see that there are contracts being rolled from the January contract to May. This allows consumers to maintain cover for this season without having to convert to physical.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia released its updated crop forecasts. After a strong crop last year the crop has disappointed this season. The production estimates and month on month change are shown below:

  • Wheat 5.4mmt (-8%)
  • Barley 3.9mmt (+5.3%)
  • Canola 1.1mmt (+13.5%)
  • Oats 400kmt (-13.2%)

The GIWA results in the past have been generally quite accurate, however, after discussing with contacts in the west, these numbers have room for further downward revisions.

On an international level, we have seen US futures trading downward for most of this week, but we have seen a large rise overnight. This has been driven by comments from Trump related to positive trade talks with China.

It’s a bit like groundhog day now, where China and US get close to a resolution only for a last-minute pull back. At present, a limited agreement is on the cards which will prevent the new tariffs due to be implemented on Sunday.

This has driven the markets higher as the prospect of trade flows returning to normal. I believe that it will be a while until trade with China is back to normal and that these negotiations will likely continue for some time.

The UK went to the polls yesterday for the 3rd time in the past five years. The election has been one of the most contentious in recent years due to Brexit, with one side calling for further referendums and the other to get the deal done. The previous parliament was unable to reach agreements on the Brexit package after numerous votes, resulting in the current election.

As the voting booths close the exit polls are predicting a very strong conservative majority. If this eventuates, we will see a strong rally in the GBP.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean? – Next week:

Feed demand remains strong at present with buyers looking to fulfill uncovered feeding requirements. This has provided a beneficial jump in values for producers. Whether this continues when grower selling increases is yet to be determined.

MAP your route

This week’s grain market update includes a look at ‘cheap’ offers of fertilizer in Australia & the slowness of the Victorian harvest.

Recently I wrote an analysis article on the performance of the global fertilizer market (read here) and had a follow-up podcast with Chris Lawson of CRU (listen here). In these reports, we discussed the fact that Urea had fallen A$64/mt since September (figure 1) and DAP was down a massive A$196/mt since the start of the year (figure 2).

There is a lack of transparency in the fertilizer market. There is no open and publicly available pricing for fertilizer in the same way that we see for grain, wool and livestock prices. This means that largely pricing intelligence on local fertilizer tends to be anecdotal in nature.

Nonetheless, we have received reports from several readers who have informed us of offers that are substantially below recent years levels. As an example, there are offers of A$530/mt for MAP in VIC & SA. These same readers informed me that they paid >A$700 this time last year for supplies.

There are questions remaining about whether it is time to purchase, or whether there will be more cheaper parcels on the way due to the lower overseas prices. Whether it drops further or not, this year is likely to have a lower fertilizer cost than last.

On the grain front, the ASX contract has risen this week by A$7/mt to hit an average of A$345 for the week. This remains at a substantial discount to last year’s strong drought premiums at A$428 for the same week (figure 3). For producers looking forward to next year, there have been attractive trades for January 2021 at around A$340.

Harvest remains slow in Victoria due to uncooperative weather, however, is likely to move ahead with gusto in the next fortnight. There are many consumers who have been ‘hand to mouth’ buyers during November and December. There were many hoping for an early harvest that hasn’t transpired resulting in continued strong premiums for old crop grain.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean/next week?

The big question remaining on everyone’s lips is what comes of the Victorian harvest. The ABARES report earlier this week confirmed that Victoria is the jewel of the nation this year.

Will there be harvest pressure in the coming weeks?

Blighted barley

American markets have closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Whilst they relax eating pumpkin pie and turkey the rest of the world carries on. In this week’s comment, we take a look at barley pricing.

The barley market has been under immense pressure over the past year. The past six months have seen a strong decline in pricing however the past fortnight has seen prices largely stabilise.

Since June barley pricing has declined by the following levels:
• Adelaide -19%
• Geelong -24%
• Kwinana -14%
The premium for wheat has increased dramatically since August, when (in Geelong) the premium started the month at A$10/mt. The premium has since increased to A$52/mt (figure 2), which is closer to long term average premiums.
The change in pricing levels has made barley far more attractive for feeding. During the past season, many consumers opted to reduce barley and utilize a higher level of wheat in feed rations. The consumers are now switching back to barley at these levels, however, will be keeping a close eye on changes to the spread.
The ASX wheat contract received some attention this week, with 53kmt trading on the exchange. The market has averaged A$338.25/mt for the week, which is up A$1 from last week. From a seasonal perspective, the harvest contract is down A$89/mt from the same week last year.

What does it mean next week?
As we move into December, we will see harvest moving further south into Victoria. Yesterday, I visited some crops in the Western Districts and they looked very good. As the wheat goes into the bins we may see some harvest pressure due to the heavily unsold positions by producers.

T-Ports: A look at pricing on the Eyre Peninsula

This year sees the opening of the T-Ports facility on the Eyre Peninsula. This facility brings additional export capacity and with that the potential for extra competition. In this update, we examine the historical spreads between Adelaide and Port Lincoln.

In recent days there has been commentary that the spread between Port Lincoln and Adelaide had narrowed as a result of the introduction of the T-Ports facility. We thought it was worthwhile to examine the historical spreads between the two-port zones.

The T-Ports facility is based at Lucky Bay and utilizes a different loading method from any other grain export port in Australia. Up until now, grain in Australia was loaded onto vessels in Australia direct from a berth, T-Ports will use a transshipment vessel.

The transshipment vessel ‘Lucky Eyre’ will load grain at Lucky Bay, which will then sail to deep water vessels to transfer the grain onboard. This is a relatively common way of loading vessels in regions where vessel drafts are an issue.

In figure 1, the historical prices for APW1 are shown for Adelaide and Port Lincoln. Typically, Adelaide and Port Lincoln have traded at similar levels for much of the past decade. There have, however, been periods when Adelaide has traded at a strong premium, especially during the past 18 months.

This spread is clearly displayed in figure 2. This chart represents the premium or discount between Port Lincoln and Adelaide. Last year saw the discount at its largest level versus the rest of the decade. However, recent months have seen the spread narrow.

There is some speculation that this narrowing of the spread is due to the extra competition encouraging buyers. However, at present, it is hard to confirm whether competition is the cause.

We do know, however, that last year Adelaide was pricing into the eastern state domestic homes, rather than the export market. As the market has come off the boil, Adelaide pricing has fallen dramatically. It is more than likely that the larger discount at Port Lincoln last year was a result of the cost of logistics to the domestic market.

What does it mean?

The T-Ports facility is a fantastic addition to the Australian grain export market. This model is one that can be rolled out in further regions, at a potentially lower cost than traditional berth-based discharging.

Grain growers on the Eyre Peninsula now have additional options for delivering their grain, which will in many areas reduce their freight costs.

Local futures down

As we move into this harvest the local ASX futures decline further, in this update we look at the seasonality. We also update on some of the 20/21 global projections and the fate of the Argentine crop.

The ASX wheat contract has lost further steam this week with the weekly average settlement down A$4.6/mt. Interestingly, the contract has followed a very similar seasonal pattern from around week 39 to present. Last year we did see a rally back in the weeks leading to expiry (Figure 1).

In recent weeks, we have seen a rally in old crop pricing as consumers have had their hopes for an early Victorian harvest dashed. There were many who were hand to mouth and have now had to purchase old crop grain to keep them going until the harvest starts. This dry spell has kept the majority of headers in Victoria parked up, however, they are likely to continue with earnest over the next week.

On a global level, Chicago wheat futures for December fell A$3 overnight, with the contract trading in a narrow range of A$270 to A$278 this month (figure 2). There was some news released last night which influenced the market:

The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture has estimated their wheat crop at 19mmt, a large drop from early expectations of 21mmt. A production figure of 19mmt still places the wheat crop well above the five-year average (see here)

The International Grain council updated their forecasts for global production:

  • 20/21 Wheat acreage up 1%
  • 20/21 Rapeseed/canola acreage up 3%

The week ahead

Harvest will be kicking up a notch in Victoria. This may provide some harvest pressure on pricing levels, and those holding onto old crop are liable in the coming weeks to see the current strong premium decline.

Important news from Ukraine and China

In the past 24 hours there has been two news items which are likely to have some impact on Australia. One in the mid to long term, and one in the short term. The uncertainty from China continues, and one of our major export competitors modernizes their practices.

The first piece of news, and most immediate to the Australian market is result of the Chinese anti-competitive dumping probe. This action was taken by China 12 months ago, and under world trade organization (WTO) rules, should have been completed on Monday.

In what is the least surprising news of the year, China has requested an extension. The WTO allow a six-month extension, which means the probing must be complete by the 19th May.

Figure 1 depicts the barley price since over the past year. As we can see the market has largely been drifting lower. These levels are at export competitive levels. The market has largely priced in this extension and we are unlikely to see substantive falls from this point onwards.

The second piece of news is one which is likely to be a slow burner but is likely to impact upon Australia (eventually).

Ukraine has been a powerhouse during the past decade. Exports (especially corn & wheat) have drastically risen (figure 2). This is even though Ukrainian land legislation is quite archaic to many other major cropping nations.

The increase in cropping production which allows for large exports programs is due to the large number of foreign investors. However, these corporate investors are unable to own the land that they are farming. It is not unusual for corporate farms to be leasing land from 100’s of individual landholders.

The opening up of Ukraine to foreign buyers will lead to increases in investments from on-farm right through the supply chain. It is also expected that this will lead to an improved economy for Ukraine.

This doesn’t however bode all that well for Australia, as this has the potential to drastically increase the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports.

Remember to listen to the  Commodity Conversation podcast by Mecardo

What does it mean?

Harvest of barley in Victoria is going to jump up a notch this week, which may see some harvest pressure on pricing.

At present the barley-wheat spread is attractive to consumers, with most focusing on accumulating as we move into harvest.